REGIONAL AIR STUDIES BASED ON HUGE FORECASTS

Passenger numbers to more than double ?
The Regional Air Studies and the resulting White Paper are based entirely on a prediction by the government that the number of passengers using the UK airports will more than double in 20 years - from 180 million a year in 2000 to 500 million a year in 2030.

Where will that growth come from ?
The growth will come mainly from leisure trips. Leisure trips are becoming shorter and shorter with more people flying off for more weekend breaks.

Do we need these trips ?
The essential fact to remember is that the forecast growth in air travel of the next 20 or 30 years in the UK will be largely accounted for by these inessential trips. Is it really in the best interest of the country that our inhabitants' health, quality of life and environment should be sacrificed so that more better-off people can fly to Prague for the weekend ?

Key facts to note

• Only 20% of flights are for business purposes. That figure is likely to remain constant over the next 20 years. If it were not for the leisure trips, there would be little need for an increase in airport capacity.
• £8.6 billion annual deficit in aviation tourism. That is the difference between the amount of money spent abroad by Britons flying out of the UK for leisure and holiday trips (£17.7 billion) and the amount visitors to the UK spend here (£9.1 billion). See aviation and tourism briefing.
• Tax concessions are stimulating the demand. Air fares are so low because of the huge hidden subsidies received by the aviation industry. It pays no tax on aviation fuel, no VAT on the purchase of planes or any of the components of air travel, nor does it cover the costs of the noise and pollution it causes. See aviation and tax briefing.
• Removing subsidies to aviation would benefit low-income households. Most people on low-incomes do not fly off on weekends abroad. They make few air journeys. They therefore receive the least benefits from the subsidised fares. See aviation and equity briefing.
• Subsidies are socially divisive. Everybody would benefit if the subsidies to the aviation industry were cut. The Exchequer would get a big increase in tax revenue, which would help fund public services without needing to increase income tax. See aviation and equity briefing.
• Regional Aviation Studies assume that these subsidies will remain. Despite the evident costs to society of these subsidies, the government is assuming that they will remain. As a result, they forecast that fares will decrease by 1% or even 2% per year (in real terms), fuelling unsustainable growth rates. See aviation and tax briefing.
• Subsidies distort the UK economy. The total annual subsidy to the industry is estimated to be in the region of £7 billion. This disorts the economy and leads to a loss in welfare. See aviation and tax briefing. The aviation industry would continue to provide jobs without the subsidies and overall employment would be unchanged. See aviation and jobs briefing.
• Airport expansion won't help regional economies. Independent evidence suggests that new transport infrastructure - of any sort - plays a very limited role in regional regeneration. Only if all the other conditions are right, such as the availability of labour with the necessary skills, are new or expanded airports likely to significantly assist regional regeneration. See aviation and regeneration briefing.

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