ࡱ> #` #bjbj ߄i 4hd^$KLpr$h@."$Lr^FRJ(r"r 0~L[$0K    d1/^KFFF Heathrow, Aviation and Climate Change Climate change is real and caused by human greenhouse gas emissions. Drastic cuts in emissions are necessary to avoid dangerous and irreversible warming. These are the stark conclusions of the IPPC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The UK government has accepted this and the Climate Change Bill, currently passing through Parliament, proposes a 60 per cent cut in UK emissions by 2050. (But this is seriously flawed by not including international aviation and shipping.) These targets may be strengthened in the face of the most up-to-date scientific evidence which implies that greater cuts (of at least 80 per cent) are necessary. It is clear, therefore, that all sectors of the economy will need to make big cuts in their carbon emissions and so develop sustainably. But the government plans for one sector to increase its carbon emissions. Dramatically. It is doing this by allowing encouraging expansion around the country, led by a third runway at Heathrow, already the countrys biggest airport. ______________________________________________________________________________ Aviation growth There were 228 million passengers passing through UK airports in 2005. The Department for Transport (DfT) forecasts around 465 million passengers passing through UK airports per year by 2030. The official forecast for UK aviation carbon emissions is for a slightly lower rate of growth - this depends on hoped-for future improvements in technology. See diagram. UK aviation carbon emission forecasts to 2030, (million tonnes CO2) 4  Nevertheless, aviation expansion at the rates predicted would make the necessary cuts in UK CO2 emissions impossible. As the respected Tyndall Centre on Climate Change has stated, the sums just dont add up.  It is often stated by the airline industry that aviation is not very significant as it only accounts for 2% of global CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions. This is misleading; in the UK, the governments own figures show that aviation accounted for at least 10% of our emissions in 2005. This is calculated by taking the 6.3% of our emissions which are from aircraft  and multiplying this by a figure to include the additional warming effects when gases other than CO2 from burning kerosene are emitted at a high altitude. The exact magnitude of this is uncertain; the DfT is currently using a figure of 1.9 times more warming from aviation than CO2 alone. So aviation already accounts for a significant proportion of UK emissions. But unlike all other sectors, it is growing very fast. Heathrow third runway A third runway would raise the numbers of flights to and from Heathrow from under 480,000 per year to 702,000 a year.  Annual emissions would increase by around 7 million tonnes of CO2. This increase would be greater than the combined 2005 emissions from Gatwick and Stansted,  or the total yearly emissions of a country such as Ghana.  A third runway going ahead will make it more difficult to avoid dangerous climate change, both directly and by sending a signal to other countries that the UK is not prepared to take the issue seriously. Emissions Trading The governments response to the problem has been to leave aviation out of its climate targets and promote an Emissions Trading System (ETS). This will allow airlines to buy permits to emit CO2 from other industries in Britain and abroad. Unfortunately, there is no certainty that ETS will come in and, even if it does, there is no assurance it will make a significant difference to emissions. 1 The alternatives Aviation expansion is not a force of nature that we must live with; it is the product of active policy choices. We are not talking about stopping flying just avoiding additional flights that are not happening at the moment. Almost two-thirds of passengers from Heathrow are travelling on leisure, and the main users of cheap holiday flights are well-off passengers travelling several times a year. Investment in the rail network is key. The new Eurostar service from St Pancras, reaching Paris in 2hr 15min, demonstrates that trains can be as convenient as planes, or more so, when waiting times and security are factored in. At the moment, air travel is often very cheap, but this is partly because airlines do not have to pay tax on fuel or VAT. The total value of this subsidy has been estimated at 10.4 billion a year.  Ending this anomaly may not be entirely straightforward, but it is necessary for sustainable transport development. Take action ! Please respond to the DfTs consultation on Heathrow, but do not answer the questions posed. Just say no to expansion and give your own reasons. For more information see Friends of the Earths website at  HYPERLINK "http://www.foe.co.uk/campaigns/transport/case_studies/heathrow.html" www.foe.co.uk/campaigns/transport/case_studies/heathrow.html See also  HYPERLINK "http://www.stopheathrowexpansion.com" www.stopheathrowexpansion.com where you can sign a petition against expansion To respond to the consultation go to  HYPERLINK "http://www.dft.gov.uk/consultations/open/heathrowconsultation/" www.dft.gov.uk/consultations/open/heathrowconsultation/ or call 0485 600 4170. You can also email your response straight to . HYPERLINK "mailto:heathrowconsultation@dft.gsi.gov.uk" heathrowconsultation@dft.gsi.gov.uk We need to put pressure on the Government to join up their thinking and include aviation emissions in the Climate Change Bill going through Parliament. See  HYPERLINK "http://www.foe.co.uk" www.foe.co.uk for up-to-date information. Contacts 020 8357 8426;  HYPERLINK "mailto:nic@wlfoet5.demon.co.uk" nic@wlfoet5.demon.co.uk      Anderson K., Bows A., Upham P. (2006) Growth scenarios for EU & UK aviation: contradictions with climate policy: Tyndall Working Paper 84  Gillian Merron, answer to Parliamentary Question, 2 May 2007 Hansard Column 1670W  HYPERLINK "http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200607/cmhansrd/cm070502/text/70502w0005.htm" http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200607/cmhansrd/cm070502/text/70502w0005.htm  Department for Transport (2007) Adding capacity at Heathrow Airport  Department for Transport (2007) UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 forecasts.   HYPERLINK "http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tableh1co2.xls" http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tableh1co2.xls  Civil Aviation Authority press release, 20 September 2007  HYPERLINK "http://www.caa.co.uk/application.aspx?catid=14&pagetype=65&appid=7&newstype=n&mode=detail&nid=1501" http://www.caa.co.uk/application.aspx?catid=14&pagetype=65&appid=7&newstype=n&mode=detail&nid=1501  World Development Movement (2007) Dying on a Jet Plane  HYPERLINK "http://www.wdm.org.uk/resources/reports/climate/dyingonajetplane19032007.pdf" http://www.wdm.org.uk/resources/reports/climate/dyingonajetplane19032007.pdf  HYPERLINK "http://www.foe.co.uk/index.html"  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.foe.co.uk/images/common/foe_logo3.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  West London  &'()no|    ѿpppYLB8BL8LhMOJQJ^Jh4{OJQJ^JhnhL{OJQJ^J,jhnh,lOJQJU^JmHnHu#hnh,l5CJOJQJ^JaJ#hnhL{5CJOJQJ^JaJhnh@v5OJQJ^Jh$g5OJQJ^J#hnhS5CJ&OJQJ^JaJ$#hnh,05CJ&OJQJ^JaJ$#hnhobE5CJ&OJQJ^JaJ$8jhnh$gCJ&OJQJU^JaJ$mHnHtH u'()  = ( w x y J :,$d$d%d&d'dNOPQa$gd gdO#}gd{$a$gdZ\!gdL{gd,ldgd,lgd$g$a$gd iv7## = h p   ( v w x y ۲ۖr`O>O hnhGBCJOJQJ^JaJ hnh{CJOJQJ^JaJ#hnh"5CJOJQJ^JaJ#hnh{5CJOJQJ^JaJ#hnhj5CJOJQJ^JaJhnh$g5OJQJ^Jhnh,l5OJQJ^JhnhZ\!5OJQJ^Jh 5OJQJ^JhnhL{56OJQJ^JhnhL{5OJQJ^JhnhL{OJQJ^Jh OJQJ^J  I "356789:;<=IKͿͮygRA0 hnhb6KCJOJQJ^JaJ hnhZ\!CJOJQJ^JaJ)jhnhZ\!CJOJQJU^JaJ#h h MpCJH*OJQJ^JaJ#h hfCJH*OJQJ^JaJ#h hO#}CJH*OJQJ^JaJ h h CJOJQJ^JaJ h hO#}CJOJQJ^JaJh CJOJQJ^JaJ hnhO#}CJOJQJ^JaJ hnh{CJOJQJ^JaJ hnhLCJOJQJ^JaJ:<=,#9\nlgdcgdA<$a$gdgd4U{$a$gdZ\!gd4Flgd{&$d%d&d'dNOPQgdO#}K TU첡oXG2G)hnhnB*CJOJQJ^JaJph hnhnCJOJQJ^JaJ-jhnhn0JCJOJQJU^JaJ$hnh 60JCJOJQJ^JaJheCJOJQJ^JaJ hnhMCJOJQJ^JaJ hnhZ\!CJOJQJ^JaJ hnh{CJOJQJ^JaJ)hnh{56CJH*OJQJ^JaJ&hnh/56CJOJQJ^JaJ&hnh{56CJOJQJ^JaJ  *+{|#ܼܼܩܒ܀kUkC"h CJOJQJ^JaJnH tH +huhnCJH*OJQJ^JaJnH tH (hnhnCJOJQJ^JaJnH tH #hnhnCJH*OJQJ^JaJ-jhnhn0JCJOJQJU^JaJ$hnhn0JCJOJQJ^JaJ#hnhn5CJOJQJ^JaJh CJOJQJ^JaJ hnhnCJOJQJ^JaJ#huhnCJH*OJQJ^JaJ#9PQR\n12{ &ɲܠɲɲ܎܀rcQ܀#hnhn6CJOJQJ^JaJhCJH*OJQJ^JaJh MpCJOJQJ^JaJhlCJOJQJ^JaJ#huhnCJH*OJQJ^JaJ#hnhnCJH*OJQJ^JaJ-jhnhn0JCJOJQJU^JaJ$hnhn0JCJOJQJ^JaJ hnhnCJOJQJ^JaJ#hnhn5CJOJQJ^JaJ&;<=PQRSᘼtbP>P#hnhmf5CJOJQJ^JaJ#hnh4U{5CJOJQJ^JaJ#hnhS5CJOJQJ^JaJ#hnh5CJOJQJ^JaJ#hnhc5CJOJQJ^JaJ hnhcCJOJQJ^JaJ$hnhn0JCJOJQJ^JaJh CJOJQJ^JaJ-jhnhn0JCJOJQJU^JaJ hnhnCJOJQJ^JaJhA<CJOJQJ^JaJ l789:CDvw9۸zgRR?R$hnh4U{0JCJOJQJ^JaJ)jhnh4U{CJOJQJU^JaJ$hnhi0JCJOJQJ^JaJ/j6hnhiCJOJQJU^JaJ hnhiCJOJQJ^JaJ)jhnhiCJOJQJU^JaJ hnh4U{CJOJQJ^JaJ#hnhmf5CJOJQJ^JaJ#hnh4U{5CJOJQJ^JaJ#hnhc5CJOJQJ^JaJ9:;rstҿҮҮwҿҮfҮNҿҮ/jI:hnhiCJOJQJU^JaJ hnh*CJOJQJ^JaJ/j9hnhiCJOJQJU^JaJ hnhACJOJQJ^JaJh CJOJQJ^JaJ hnhiCJOJQJ^JaJ$hnhi0JCJOJQJ^JaJ)jhnhiCJOJQJU^JaJ/j7hnhiCJOJQJU^JaJhiklnoqrtuv a >!Q"6#7#8###gdn dgd^gdA<dgdn$a$gdUgd4U{ !MNOfghijlmoprsvwXпphdhdhdhdO>O> hnhnCJOJQJ^JaJ)jhnhnCJOJQJU^JaJhjhU hnhZCJOJQJ^JaJ hnh$gCJOJQJ^JaJ/j;hnhCJOJQJU^JaJ)jhnhCJOJQJU^JaJ hnhCJOJQJ^JaJ hnhMCJOJQJ^JaJ#hnhS5CJOJQJ^JaJhnhiOJQJ^JXY    a b ;!!?!Y!z!{!!!N"O"Q"R"""""2#3#6#7#8#9#ٮ٠ꏋq+jh$gCJOJQJU^JaJmH sH h7h hnhnCJOJQJ^JaJh MpCJOJQJ^JaJ/j<hnhnCJOJQJU^JaJ$hnhn0JCJOJQJ^JaJ hnhnCJOJQJ^JaJ)jhnhnCJOJQJU^JaJ'9#f#g#h#############ؽ~mb^ZI hnhZCJOJQJ^JaJh%h$gh$gh$gOJQJ h$gh$gOJQJ^JmH sH h$gOJQJ^JmH sH 4j=h$gB*CJOJQJU^JaJmH ph3fsH +h$gB*CJOJQJ^JaJmH ph3fsH 4jh$gB*CJOJQJU^JaJmH ph3fsH +jh$gCJOJQJU^JaJmH sH "h$gCJOJQJ^JaJmH sH ####gdA<61h:pO#}BP. 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